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Archive through May 15, 2003

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Carl Guderian (Bjacques)
le Duc
Username: Bjacques

Post Number: 263
Registered: 4-2001
Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 8:02 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Which brings me back to my point: the chances of a burglar being life-threatening may justify your keeping a gun, but not your plan to use it no matter what.

From earlier:

If the burglar turns tail or falls down blubbering and begging for his life, do you shoot anyway? Do you maneuver so that you don't wind up shooting the guy in the back? Finish them off if your first shot only incapacitates? The cops and DA in your state may wink, but you could still face a wrongful death suit, especially if you live in suburbia and the burglar was just a neighbor's kid. So, yeah, you need a cool head even in a hot situation, or you're just a loose cannon.
Jack Collins (_blackjack_)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: _blackjack_

Post Number: 983
Registered: 11-2000


Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 5:14 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post


quote:

I don't know about you Blackjack, but I'd far rather be burgled than murdered. More burglary and less murder is a good trade of as far as I'm concerned.



If the murders were as evenly distributed as the burglaries, you might be right, but they aren't. You can only get killed once. You can get burgled over and over again.

Ignoring demographics, an American has a 1-in-17,000 chance of being murdered in a given year.

Again ignoring demographics, someone in England has about a 1-in-77,000 chance of being murdered in a given year. Clearly, those odds are much better than in the US, BUT the odds in the US are still pretty remote.

Someone in England has about a 1-in-45 chance of being burgled in a given year. In the US, the chance is more like 1-in-110. In practical terms, that is a much more significant difference than the difference in murder rates, since it means the difference between the likelyhood that one will be burgled at least once in ones life, and the good possibility that one will never be burgled.

Ask a gambler which set of odds he'd rather deal with.

But the fact is that in the US (and probably the UK--I've been to lazy to track down the stats) murders tend to take place within specifc parts of the population, while burglaries are far more distributed across all sectors of the population.

To give you an idea, as a white, non-hispanic male, aged 30-34, living in my region, I have about a 1-in-31,000 chance of being murdered in a given year. Not quite as good as England overall, but nearly twice as good as the overall US rate. My chance of being burgled, however, is pretty much exactly the same as the overall US rate. A change in the overall rate of burglaries is going to affect a much larger percentage of people, both in terms of the number of crimes and the percentage of the population that will be affected.

Now, I would much rather we could bring down the overall murder rate TOO, especially since it is a symptom of the level of racial injustice that still plagues us. However, my personal chances of being murdered are low enough that it really isn't a concern, while my chances of being burgled are high enough that it at least warrents some amount of attention.
Jack Collins (_blackjack_)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: _blackjack_

Post Number: 982
Registered: 11-2000


Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 3:39 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post


quote:

We don't really have gang warfare over here so young men have got to have something to satisfy their tribal urges and release all that pent up testosterone.



But, like I said, the gang warfare is isolated to very specific communities and socioeconomic groups. MOST Americans don't have any need to "satisfy their tribal urges" in a violent manner. I mean, I could find a fight if I was looking for one, but it isn't an accepted passtime over here.
Quidam (Artemis)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Artemis

Post Number: 766
Registered: 10-2000


Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 1:49 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Actually, it's not unheard of for a fan of a given NFL (U.S. professional football) team to get thumped if he shows up wearing his team's colors in an opposing stadium, especially if he makes an ass of himself and flaunts it. Drunken Chicago Bear fans have been known to chase down Green Bay Packer fans in the street and treat them to an ass rubbing, as in Packer fan gets held down by two burly Bear fans while a third Bear fan pulls down his pants and applies buttocks to the Cheesehead's lips.

The Oakland Raider fans are particularly intolerant of interlopers in "their" stadium.

If you were to show up in some bars around Baton Rouge on an LSU football night wearing the colors of let's say, the hated Auburn Tigers, you'd be asking for an ass whipping as well. In general, unless you're stupid or Superman, you figure out which drunken mobs to stay away from regardless of the country you're in.
Quelle vie ont eue nos grands-parents
Entre l'absinthe et les grands-messes... ?

Lordhobgoblin (Lordhobgoblin)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Lordhobgoblin

Post Number: 774
Registered: 10-2000


Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 12:26 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

"And that doesn't strike you as a bit off? Over here, I might get beaten or shot for wearing the colors of the wrong GANG in very specific dodgy neighborhoods, but not for wearing the colors of the wrong team in a neighborhood bar."

No-one's talking about getting shot over here for wearing the wrong football colours, just a bit of a kicking that's all. We don't really have gang warfare over here so young men have got to have something to satisfy their tribal urges and release all that pent up testosterone.

You won't get any bother is the average local bar but if you stroll into let's say a Chelsea football supporters bar wearing Leeds Utd colours on day the 2 teams are playing then you are asking for trouble. If the doorman of the bar does you a favour by pointing this fact out to you and saving you from a kicking into the bargain then you should be grateful to him. So if you happen to come across a bar decked out in football scarves full of a load of drunken young men singing football songs then it is best to stay clear unless you belong to their tribe or you have some friends in their tribe.
Lordhobgoblin (Lordhobgoblin)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Lordhobgoblin

Post Number: 773
Registered: 10-2000


Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 12:11 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

"Americans suffer a slightly increased risk of violent crimes, and a significantly higher risk of the still uncommon crime of murder, in exchange for a significantly reduced risk of the more common crime of burglary."

I don't know about you Blackjack, but I'd far rather be burgled than murdered. More burglary and less murder is a good trade of as far as I'm concerned.
Pataphysician (Pataphysician)
Elitist Bastard
Username: Pataphysician

Post Number: 573
Registered: 5-2001
Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 9:17 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

The point is, it underscores the fact that we ARE an occupying force and we'll dole out freedom to the Iraqi people at our whim. I understand that one of the best-organized and most popular political parties in Iraq is the Communist party (which survived underground during Saddam). What do you think the odds are that the U.S. would let them win an election?
Crosby (Crosby)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Crosby

Post Number: 534
Registered: 12-2001


Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 7:51 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

It makes perfect sense to ban guns in a country you are occupying. There have been numerous "sniper" shootings of US soldiers in the past couple weeks. I don't see the double standard, the victor always disarms the vanquished. The problem I see is that they may never get the right back if the UN and England are involved in determining their future. The UN would love to make it so that only the police and soldiers have weapons.
C'est ma santé
Pataphysician (Pataphysician)
Elitist Bastard
Username: Pataphysician

Post Number: 570
Registered: 5-2001
Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 7:19 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Matt: they said "ALL guns".
mattm3 (Mattm3)
le Duc
Username: Mattm3

Post Number: 319
Registered: 4-2003


Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 7:07 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

I don't remember US citizens ever being able to legally own Rocket Propelled Grenades or Ak-47s?
How sweet life can be when the misery of ones existance is blurred by slight intoxication!!!
Dr. O (Dr_ordinaire)
Elitist Bastard
Username: Dr_ordinaire

Post Number: 464
Registered: 7-2001
Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 7:06 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Thanks,Pata, for a great example of a double standard. Here's another.

According to that British extremist leftist rag, "The Economist", opium poppy cultivation (virtually non-existant under the Taliban) is now, under American occupation, up to pre-Taliban levels.

Ain't that amazing? Those satellites that can spot an Al-Quaeda member in a cave somehow are missing thousands of acres of opium poppies.

I have a humble suggestion: that the U.S. Army invades the United States. a) they will get rid of all the weapons, b) people would be able to use drugs.

Hell, I'll move back to the States if that happens...
Pataphysician (Pataphysician)
Elitist Bastard
Username: Pataphysician

Post Number: 568
Registered: 5-2001
Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2003 - 6:17 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Americans' long-cherished, God-given, inalienable right to bear arms, enshrined in our constitution, we will not extend to Iraqis:

"US military tells Iraqis to turn in all guns or face arrest
(Baghdad, Iraq - Associated Press, May 15, 2003 7:30 AM) The US military is now telling Iraqis they cannot own or sell guns. Any Iraqi who does faces arrest, according to a new radio spot running in the country.

Lieutenant General David McKiernan, who is commanding US forces on the ground, says a new set of laws in Iraq are aimed at rebuilding law and order.

One problem US forces have is the tens of thousands of weapons Saddam Hussein's government gave out in its final days in power. Many ended up in the hands of looters or criminals.

McKiernan has issued a statement saying coalition forces will hunt down those people, whom he calls a threat to everyone in Iraq. He is urging any Iraqi who owns a firearm to turn it in to coalition forces."
Jack Collins (_blackjack_)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: _blackjack_

Post Number: 979
Registered: 11-2000


Posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 4:31 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post


quote:

The 2nd pub was doing that for your own safety. Football is SERIOUS business over here.



And that doesn't strike you as a bit off? Over here, I might get beaten or shot for wearing the colors of the wrong GANG in very specific dodgy neighborhoods, but not for wearing the colors of the wrong team in a neighborhood bar. You guys seem to spread the violence out a lot more than we do.
Jack Collins (_blackjack_)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: _blackjack_

Post Number: 978
Registered: 11-2000


Posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 4:26 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post


quote:

If that really is the case then why do you guys all feel the need to carry guns?



On could argue (though I have yet to see it proven statistically) that this is the case BECAUSE we are allowed to own guns.

My answer, however, is that there is no reason NOT to allow law-abiding citizens to own guns if they want to, since they have shown that they can use them responsibly.

Basically, Americans don't like to depend on the government. Even if they are never going to be attacked, they would prefer to be able to defend themselves rather than rely on the government to do it for them. It's a matter of taste. For much the same reason, Americans would rather own their own cars than depend on the government to provide busses and trains.


quote:

You also fail to take into account most of our gun-murders are also in fact black-on-black gang related killings.



If that is the case, then your much lower murder rate is in part becasue you have a much smaller black population. I'll need to dig up the numbers for further analysis.

I agree that the average Londoner is less likely to be murderd than the average New Yorker, but your murder rate is low even for Europe. The average New Yorker falls more in the range of the average Madrido (is that the right word?).

I'll see if I can get some more detailed stats for individual cities, but based on the national stats I gave you earlier, in 1996 there were 4,183,780 murders, rapes, robberies, assaults and burglaries combined in the US. (I recognize that burglary isn't technically a violent crime, but it is the very thing that spawned this discussion.) That is a rate of about 1580 violent crimes and burglaries per 100,000.

In England and Wales, there were 1,473,694 murders, rapes, robberies, assaults and burglaries combined in 1996, a rate of about 2800 violent crimes and burglaries per 100,000. Even when you INCLUDE our unusually high murder rate, you still end up with more total crimes.

If you leave out burglaries, the numbers are about 635 per 100k for the US and 590 per 100k for England, meaning our total violent crime rate is omly slightly higher than yours, giving some credence to my suggestion that the main difference is that crimes which would not end in death over there sometimes do over here. I don't know.

But when you factor in burglaries, which are a far more common crime to start with, you guys lose ground fast. Your burglary rate is higher than our combined rates for burglary AND violent crimes.

Basically, the tradeoff seems to be (ignoring demographics until I get more complete data) that Americans suffer a slightly increased risk of violent crimes, and a significantly higher risk of the still uncommon crime of murder, in exchange for a sgnificantly reduced risk of the more common crime of burglary.

I'm not claiming that any single factor (including guns) is responsible for this difference, but it is one I am willing to put up with. I'd much rather take the remote chance that I might be murdered than live with knowing that I was likely to have someone might break into my house. The latter is far more liklely to keep me up at night...


quote:

There do not feel they are at a real risk of being shot at by the vast majority of criminals.



That isn't surprising. As I've said before, even British criminals seem to have an aversion to using guns. Lucky for you. While I'd rather fix the problems altogether, between the two, I prefer having criminals shooting at each other with guns like they do here, than having them breaking into my house unarmed like they do over there.


ENORMUS DICK (Louched_liver)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Louched_liver

Post Number: 1751
Registered: 12-2001


Posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 1:56 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

LoHobber,
Oh, I understand. It was an FA Cup game, a biggie. It was just an anectdote.
Will work for absinthe.
Lordhobgoblin (Lordhobgoblin)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Lordhobgoblin

Post Number: 772
Registered: 10-2000


Posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 12:12 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Louchey,

The 2nd pub was doing that for your own safety. Football is SERIOUS business over here.
Lordhobgoblin (Lordhobgoblin)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Lordhobgoblin

Post Number: 771
Registered: 10-2000


Posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 12:06 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Blackjack,

"If you aren't a poor young black man involved in the drug trade or gangs, your chances of getting murdered in the US are about the same as those in most of Europe."

If that really is the case then why do you guys all feel the need to carry guns? As far as I'm aware most of you guys are not young black males involved in the drugs trade or gangs so therefore you're not really in any danger are you?. So why the need to carry a gun?

London (population of over 7 million) has the highest murder rate in the UK and gun murders in London are at about 50 per year. Compare this figure to that of cities in the US. You also fail to take into account most of our gun-murders are also in fact black-on-black gang related killings. When assessing the risk to the average citizen you remove the black-on-black gang murders from US murder rate but you don't do the same with UK murders. You're not exactly using a level playing field are you?

At the recent conference of the police federation (which is the police trade union although by law they cannot call it a union since they are forbidden to belong to a trade union) over here only 22% of policemen wanted to be armed (much to the dismay of certain right-wing politicians who want to arm the police so that these politicians themselves can appear to be 'tough on crime'). Ten years ago the figure was 21% so their view has really remained static. Rather they favour the continuation of the situation where specialist armed response units are called in should situation demand it. There do not feel they are at a real risk of being shot at by the vast majority of criminals. As police officers are in the front line when it comes to danger, if they don't feel the need to be armed (and actually feel that arming them would encouarge more gun violece) then there is certainly no need for the public to be armed. If the average American is no more likely to be shot at than the average Briton then why the hell does he need to carry a gun (or keep one under his pillow)?
ENORMUS DICK (Louched_liver)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Louched_liver

Post Number: 1745
Registered: 12-2001


Posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2003 - 4:01 am:   Edit PostPrint Post

Along those lines. When we were in London, my wife left one pub before me to go to another because I had to take a leak. I went to the other pub and couldn't get in because I was inadvertently wearing the colors of one of the soccer teams who's match had just ended in town. Had to go back to the 1st pub (where they let me back in because I was just there) and wait for her to return.
Will work for absinthe.
Jack Collins (_blackjack_)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: _blackjack_

Post Number: 977
Registered: 11-2000


Posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2003 - 10:42 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post


quote:

By any honest and sane measure, the UK has far less violent crime than the US has.



Except, y'know, after a football match...
Jack Collins (_blackjack_)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: _blackjack_

Post Number: 976
Registered: 11-2000


Posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2003 - 10:33 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post


quote:

It was only a matter of time before somebody attacked those statistics. By any honest and sane measure, the UK has far less violent crime than the US has.



That just plain isn't so. The average Londoner is far more likely to be mugged, assaulted or burgled than the average New Yorker. The US excels in one specific type of crime: murders committed by poor young black men against other poor young black men, usually related to the drug trade or gangs. We're specialists, as it were. If you aren't a poor young black man involved in the drug trade or gangs, your chances of getting murdered in the US are about the same as those in most of Europe.
mattm3 (Mattm3)
le Duc
Username: Mattm3

Post Number: 294
Registered: 4-2003


Posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2003 - 10:06 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Thank-you, Thank-you
How sweet life can be when the misery of ones existance is blurred by slight intoxication!!!
The Red Pigeon (Icarus)
le Duc
Username: Icarus

Post Number: 287
Registered: 4-2003


Posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2003 - 10:03 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

No smutty, you had an UNSUITABLE pic for any occasion.
mattm3 (Mattm3)
le Duc
Username: Mattm3

Post Number: 290
Registered: 4-2003


Posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2003 - 10:02 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

I used to be!
How sweet life can be when the misery of ones existance is blurred by slight intoxication!!!
The Red Pigeon (Icarus)
le Duc
Username: Icarus

Post Number: 285
Registered: 4-2003


Posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2003 - 9:55 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post

Crosby is the Hallmark of pics. A suitable pic for all occasions.
Crosby (Crosby)
Absinthe Mafia
Username: Crosby

Post Number: 525
Registered: 12-2001


Posted on Tuesday, May 13, 2003 - 9:42 pm:   Edit PostPrint Post


C'est ma santé

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